Following a series of floor crossings and three recent byelection wins, the Carney government now holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons. This gives the prime minister and cabinet greater freedom to pass legislation and advance their agenda without needing support from opposition parties. Prime Minister Carney has said it is “time to get serious” about governing the country—raising expectations that the government will adopt a more disciplined approach to federal finances.
However, critics argue that despite pledges to take a “very different approach” from the previous Trudeau government, early fiscal decisions suggest a continuation of similar patterns.
During Justin Trudeau’s time in office, Canada saw seven of the highest per-person spending levels (adjusted for inflation) in recorded history between 2018/19 and 2024/25, spanning pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. That period was also marked by nine consecutive deficits and a significant rise in federal debt, which reached historic highs even after accounting for population growth and inflation.
By comparison, earlier federal governments such as those led by Stephen Harper and Jean Chrétien were generally characterized by tighter spending controls, periods of balanced budgets, and more restrained debt growth or reductions. Critics also point to weaker economic outcomes under the Trudeau government, including stagnant per-person GDP growth and declining per-worker business investment—both seen as key drivers of long-term living standards.
Against that backdrop, Carney’s promise of a different fiscal direction raised expectations for change. Yet analysis of the government’s first budget suggests continued reliance on increased spending and borrowing.
From 2025/26 to 2029/30, the Carney government is projected to spend $67.6 billion more than what was previously forecast under the Trudeau plan for the same period. Lower-than-expected revenues also contribute to projected annual deficits ranging from $56.6 billion to $78.3 billion. Over five years, total deficits are projected to reach $321.7 billion—more than double the $154.4 billion previously forecast. Federal debt is also projected to climb to $2.9 trillion by the end of the decade, compared to $2.6 trillion under earlier projections.
Critics warn that continuing on a similar fiscal path could lead to similarly weak economic outcomes for Canadians. They argue that, with a parliamentary majority now in place, the government has both the opportunity and responsibility to change course and implement a more sustainable fiscal strategy.
The upcoming federal fiscal update on April 28 is expected to provide a clearer indication of whether the Carney government intends to pursue meaningful fiscal restraint or maintain its current trajectory.
